OT: Weather forecast discrepancies

I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):

Sat Sun Mon Tue
BBC: 10 9 10 13
Accu: 7 6 5 5

Those are enormous differences!

Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)

--
Terry, East Grinstead, UK

Terry Pinnell wrote:
> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>
> Sat Sun Mon Tue
> BBC: 10 9 10 13
> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>
> Those are enormous differences!
>
> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)
>

Automatically produced forecasts are renowned for their lack of
accuracy. The weather is hard enough for a trained forecaster to
predict. Try asking in uk.sci.weather. There are some very good
forecasters in that newsgroup who might be able to help.

--
Howard Neil

On Sat, 20 Oct 2007 08:32:12 +0100, Terry Pinnell wrote:

> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>
> Sat Sun Mon Tue
> BBC: 10 9 10 13
> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>
> Those are enormous differences!
>
> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)

Take your long woolly bikini?

The second site (or, as you need, second sight!) looks very useful - if
it's accurate. Thanks for posting the link.
Seriously though, allowing for such a range is a damned nuisance when
luggage is limited. I took some warm clothes to Malta one October. The
local chaps had told me that it was chilly and the sea was cold. Their
'chilly' was low 20s nad the sea felt luke-warm. I was in minimal clothing
for the whole week.
--
Peter.
You don't understand Newton's Third Law of Motion?
It's not rocket science, you know.

Howard Neil <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

>Terry Pinnell wrote:
>> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
>> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
>> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
>> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
>> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>>
>> Sat Sun Mon Tue
>> BBC: 10 9 10 13
>> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>>
>> Those are enormous differences!
>>
>> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
>> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)
>>
>
>Automatically produced forecasts are renowned for their lack of
>accuracy. The weather is hard enough for a trained forecaster to
>predict. Try asking in uk.sci.weather. There are some very good
>forecasters in that newsgroup who might be able to help.

Thanks, duly posted there too.

--
Terry, East Grinstead, UK

Terry Pinnell wrote:

> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>
> Sat Sun Mon Tue
> BBC: 10 9 10 13
> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>
> Those are enormous differences!
>
> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)

I wonder which forecast the IPCC uses for its global warming ideas ?

Graham

On Sat, 20 Oct 2007 12:02:48 UTC, Eeyore
<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> I wonder which forecast the IPCC uses for its global warming ideas ?

It probably changes constantly, to the one that gives them the most
'convenient' answer. I expect FoE do the same thing.

Greenpeace will probably use seaweed.

--
[ 7'ism - a condition by which the sufferer experiences an inability
to give concise answers, express reasoned argument or opinion.
Usually accompanied by silly noises and gestures - incurable, early
euthanasia recommended. ]

Terry Pinnell wrote:
> Howard Neil <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>> Terry Pinnell wrote:
>>> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
>>> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
>>> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
>>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
>>> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
>>> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>>>
>>> Sat Sun Mon Tue
>>> BBC: 10 9 10 13
>>> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>>>
>>> Those are enormous differences!
>>>
>>> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
>>> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)
>>>
>> Automatically produced forecasts are renowned for their lack of
>> accuracy. The weather is hard enough for a trained forecaster to
>> predict. Try asking in uk.sci.weather. There are some very good
>> forecasters in that newsgroup who might be able to help.
>
> Thanks, duly posted there too.
>

No problem. I've just noticed (I've been out all day) that you have had
a sensible answer. I hope the new figures prove reasonably accurate and
that you enjoy your trip.

--
Howard Neil

Howard Neil <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

>Terry Pinnell wrote:
>> Howard Neil <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>>
>>> Terry Pinnell wrote:
>>>> I was surprised at the wide variations I got from the two weather
>>>> sites I use most, BBC and Accuweather. Here are their respective
>>>> forecasts for Budapest, from about 7am today:
>>>> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.sh...rld=0059&links
>>>> http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=0&locCod e=EUR|HU|HU006|BUDAPEST&metric=1
>>>> Taking just the daily max temperatures (centigrade):
>>>>
>>>> Sat Sun Mon Tue
>>>> BBC: 10 9 10 13
>>>> Accu: 7 6 5 5
>>>>
>>>> Those are enormous differences!
>>>>
>>>> Anyone know which (if either) of these is likely to be the most
>>>> accurate please? Packing for a short trip depends on it ;-)
>>>>
>>> Automatically produced forecasts are renowned for their lack of
>>> accuracy. The weather is hard enough for a trained forecaster to
>>> predict. Try asking in uk.sci.weather. There are some very good
>>> forecasters in that newsgroup who might be able to help.
>>
>> Thanks, duly posted there too.
>>
>
>No problem. I've just noticed (I've been out all day) that you have had
>a sensible answer. I hope the new figures prove reasonably accurate and
>that you enjoy your trip.

Thanks Howard. With the new data added from martin's link, the
comparison looked like this:

Sat Sun Mon Tue
BBC: 10 9 10 13
Accu: 7 6 5 5
Hungary: 10 10 12 13

So the Hungarian Met Office was similar to BBC.

I've emailed Accuweather to ask them why they are so much lower.

The packing was actually by my wife - I was merely travel consultant!
(Possible question for A-level maths exam students: "For their help,
Terry sends Howard and Martin 10% each of his consultancy fee. All
three then bank the same amount. What was the total fee paid by
Terry's wife?")

It remains to be seen which forecast proves the most accurate.
Subjective feedback via 'phone last night was "freezing".

Anyway, my thoughts now are turning to the forecast for Prague, where
I join her on Tuesday ;-)

--
Terry, East Grinstead, UK