FTTH & VDSL2

What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/

so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it,
and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?

Thanks in advance.

(E-Mail Removed) wrote:

> What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
> and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes.

Comments like "$23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes" mean absolutely nothing
without context. Bear in mind that

a) that's not in the UK, it's probably the US, but which 18 million homes is
it? How can you possibly compare a fraction of the properties in the US
with the UK?
b) Verizon may well have had subsidy from the FCC to lay that fibre, and
just because it's been laid doesn't actually mean it's available to buy
service on.

> But from reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on
> the idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it,

LLU. Although I imagine "local" in this instance means the street cab, not
the exchange.

> and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?

BT are perfectly happy to supply internet connections over fibre to your
home/premises. The lead times can be a bit of a chore, however. A full list
of what BT [and their resellers] supply can be found at www.sinet.bt.com

--
<http://ale.cx/> (AIM:troffasky) ((E-Mail Removed))
18:20:54 up 69 days, 20:23, 4 users, load average: 1.05, 0.49, 0.33
09 f9 11 02 9d 74 e3 5b d8 41 56 c5 63 56 88 c0

(E-Mail Removed) wrote:
> What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
> and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it,
> and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?

In reality probably two chances in the next ten years: slim and none!

Peter Crosland

stev...@totalise.co.uk wrote:

> What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
> and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it

well its a pretty free market so just as COLT fibred up London
businesses in the '80s they or any one of a zillion other companies or
local organisations could do the same.

Equally with "sub loop unbundling" anyone can provide VDSL from a
local street cabinet.

BT is uniquely disadvantaged by the regulatory regime as they would
have to provide equivalent access to other ISPs etc and not "do a
Verizon" and maintain a monopoly service "BT Broadband over fibre".
This probably pees on the economic chips.

A general question is "how much will people pay for it and what is the
% takeup going to be" - any thoughts ?

> and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?

There's a BT Openreach FTTH greenfield project for Ebbsfleet or
somewhere similar planned in the next 2-3 years, you could move
there :-)

Openreach are also angling to do fibre on new builds so maybe 150,000
homes a year *could* have it if the developer plays ball. This should
start happening 2008 or 2009 IMO.


Phil

On 8 Jul, 10:31, PhilT <news...@gmail.com> wrote:
> stev...@totalise.co.uk wrote:
> > What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> > getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> > FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
> > and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> > reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> > idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> >http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> > so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it
>
> well its a pretty free market so just as COLT fibred up London
> businesses in the '80s they or any one of a zillion other companies or
> local organisations could do the same.


Okay.


> Equally with "sub loop unbundling" anyone can provide VDSL from a
> local street cabinet.


Do you think VDSL2 via street cabinets is more likely than FTTH?

Also, I've been reading about DOCSIS 3.0 for cable broadband, so do
you know if Virgin Media could roll out DOCSIS 3.0 and provide 100 Mbps
+ with its existing network or would it require a lot of work?


> BT is uniquely disadvantaged by the regulatory regime as they would
> have to provide equivalent access to other ISPs etc and not "do a
> Verizon" and maintain a monopoly service "BT Broadband over fibre".
> This probably pees on the economic chips.


Right


> A general question is "how much will people pay for it and what is the
> % takeup going to be" - any thoughts ?
>
> > and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?
>
> There's a BT Openreach FTTH greenfield project for Ebbsfleet or
> somewhere similar planned in the next 2-3 years, you could move
> there :-)
>
> Openreach are also angling to do fibre on new builds so maybe 150,000
> homes a year *could* have it if the developer plays ball. This should
> start happening 2008 or 2009 IMO.


True, but there's 24m households in the UK, so I don't plan on waiting
until they get around to doing mine! ;-)

<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
news:(E-Mail Removed) ps.com...
> What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,

this seems to come up a lot when the "summary facts" get quoted, but the
different circumstances get ignored.

i font know the details, but i suspect that in Japan this is about fibre to
the building - since a big chunk of the population live in flats.

FWIW fibre is used a lot in Italy as well - 100 Mbps or GigE on fibre to a
switch which then serves multiple homes in a block.

> and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:

you need to remember that if Verizon really does get around to spending all
that money, (and telcos are famous for not following thru) they would want a
good fraction back in charges per year.

So for 1 year payback, they would want to get an average of $1300 per served
location - and a big chunk of the house they go past wont take the service
for 1 reason or another.
>
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it,
> and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?

the verizon site info doesnt sound anywhere near as wonderful in detail:
http://www22.verizon.com/content/ConsumerFios

they seem to be pushing it based on HD TV and bundled services rather than
just internet, but the internet doesnt look fantastic in detail.

http://www22.verizon.com/content/con...and+prices.htm
30 Mbps for $180 / month...... not exactly ground breaking pricing

AFAIR Virgin got slated for their 20 Mbps pricing of £38? / month (so
roughly $76).
>
> Thanks in advance.

and the moral is - if it sounds too good to be true, it often is.
>
--
Regards

(E-Mail Removed) - replace xyz with ntl

On 8 Jul, 16:26, "stephen" <stephen_h...@xyzworld.com> wrote:
> <stev...@totalise.co.uk> wrote in message
>
> news:(E-Mail Removed) ps.com...
>
> > What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> > getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> > FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
>
> this seems to come up a lot when the "summary facts" get quoted, but the
> different circumstances get ignored.
>
> i font know the details, but i suspect that in Japan this is about fibre to
> the building - since a big chunk of the population live in flats.


>From what I've read there were 5.4 million FTTH subscribers by this
time last year, and the targets are to have 30m and 10m by 2010 in
Japan and Korea respectively.


> FWIW fibre is used a lot in Italy as well - 100 Mbps or GigE on fibre to a
> switch which then serves multiple homes in a block.
>
> > and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> > reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> > idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> you need to remember that if Verizon really does get around to spending all
> that money, (and telcos are famous for not following thru) they would want a
> good fraction back in charges per year.


Sure.


> So for 1 year payback, they would want to get an average of $1300 per served
> location - and a big chunk of the house they go past wont take the service
> for 1 reason or another.


Surely they would allow for a longer payback period than 1 year?


> >http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/
>
> > so if BT doesn't want to provide it, how is the UK going to get it,
> > and if we get it, when do you think we'll get it?
>
> the verizon site info doesnt sound anywhere near as wonderful in detail:http://www22.verizon.com/content/ConsumerFios
>
> they seem to be pushing it based on HD TV and bundled services rather than
> just internet, but the internet doesnt look fantastic in detail.
>
> http://www22.verizon.com/content/con...and+prices/pac...
> 30 Mbps for $180 / month...... not exactly ground breaking pricing


Is that just for the 30 Mbps Internet or does that include phone and
HDTV? If it's just for the Internet that is obviously very pricey.


> AFAIR Virgin got slated for their 20 Mbps pricing of £38? / month (so
> roughly $76).


It's a bit like when a new CPU comes out and they're priced
ridiculously highly, but 2 years later and they're cheap as chips...


> > Thanks in advance.
>
> and the moral is - if it sounds too good to be true, it often is.


So long as the speeds available at a reasonable price keep on going
steadily upwards I'll be happy. If the speed sticks at ADSL2+ levels
for years, then I won't be happy.

On 8 Jul, 15:06, stev...@totalise.co.uk wrote:
> On 8 Jul, 10:31, PhilT <news...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > stev...@totalise.co.uk wrote:
> > > What do people on here think will happen with regards to the UK
> > > getting FTTH and/or VDSL2? I see that millions of households have got
> > > FTTH in Korea and Japan and people are switching from ADSL to FTTH,
> > > and Verizon is spending $23bn to roll out FTTH to 18m homes. But from
> > > reading this article it looks like BT seems to be pretty cold on the
> > > idea of VDSL2 and FTTH:
>
> > >http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...eed_wars_over/

> > Equally with "sub loop unbundling" anyone can provide VDSL from a
> > local street cabinet.
>
> Do you think VDSL2 via street cabinets is more likely than FTTH?

in some places yes. FTTH for new build or high density / easy to
connect locations.
VDSL from street cabs (or exchanges) for more distributed properties
or harder / more expensive to connect locations..

> Also, I've been reading about DOCSIS 3.0 for cable broadband, so do
> you know if Virgin Media could roll out DOCSIS 3.0 and provide 100 Mbps
> + with its existing network or would it require a lot of work?

I don't "know" but in general cablecos can do a lot of upgrades
without having to rup up roads and I would expect they could go to
DOCSIS 3 with upgrades of hardware and fibre in the existing
architecture.

> True, but there's 24m households in the UK, so I don't plan on waiting
> until they get around to doing mine! ;-)

once FTTH exists you'll have the option to move to an equipped
property (if everything else fits in).

Phil

On 8 Jul, 17:29, stev...@totalise.co.uk wrote:
> On 8 Jul, 16:26, "stephen" <stephen_h...@xyzworld.com> wrote:
>
> > <stev...@totalise.co.uk> wrote in message
>
> >news:(E-Mail Removed) ups.com...
>
> > So for 1 year payback, they would want to get an average of $1300 per served
> > location - and a big chunk of the house they go past wont take the service
> > for 1 reason or another.
>
> Surely they would allow for a longer payback period than 1 year?

indeed, some complex discounted cash flow model seems more likely.

> > the verizon site info doesnt sound anywhere near as wonderful in detail:http://www22.verizon.com/content/ConsumerFios
>
> > they seem to be pushing it based on HD TV and bundled services rather than
> > just internet, but the internet doesnt look fantastic in detail.
>
> >http://www22.verizon.com/content/con...and+prices/pac...
> > 30 Mbps for $180 / month...... not exactly ground breaking pricing
>
> Is that just for the 30 Mbps Internet or does that include phone and
> HDTV? If it's just for the Internet that is obviously very pricey.

the US is a different market. In a given city you would expect to have
one cable co and one phone co and no TV aerials. The cable co give you
high speed internet and TV. Cable phone is rare in the USA. Vonage do
well over there by giving people a phone service over the cable
broadband so they can drop the landline. Landline might me $40/month
and Vonage half that.

Verizon supply phone lines including DSL and are losing customers or
have no growth potential. By providing "triple play" over fiber they
can get more customers and a "Verizon only" household becomes a
possibility whereas now the best they can hope for is phone and DSL.


> > AFAIR Virgin got slated for their 20 Mbps pricing of £38? / month (so
> > roughly $76).

£38/month would usually be $38/month as consumer prices (and the
minimum wage) translate at £ = $

Phil

On 07/07/2007 18:44, alexd wrote:

> b) Verizon may well have had subsidy from the FCC to lay that fibre, and
> just because it's been laid doesn't actually mean it's available to buy
> service on.

Also apparently when Verizon install FTTH they remove the old copper
which they were obliged to unbundle to other providers, thereby locking
the customer in.